The conclave that begins May 7 to pick a successor to Pope Francis will feature many long-established rituals, as befits a church that has been around for nearly 2,000 years.
Cardinal electors will be sequestered from the outside world until a new pope is chosen. Every person involved – including support staff – will be required to take an oath of secrecy. Smoke from the Sistine Chapel chimney – black for no, white for yes – will announce whether a decision has been made.
Within all those traditions that go back centuries, some new developments have emerged. Though Francis didn’t make any major changes to the conclave itself, his outreach to what he called "the peripheries" left an imprint that will be felt in the upcoming gathering to elect his replacement.
Here are some ways this conclave is different:
The highest number of cardinal electors in any conclave
Pope Paul VI set a rule in 1975 limiting the number of cardinal electors to 120, a norm that wasn’t strictly adhered to in the College of Cardinals meetings known as consistories.
However, this is the first time a conclave has gone over the 120 mark, and not just by a couple. Of the 252 current cardinals, 135 are under 80 and eligible to vote, though Antonio Canizares of Spain and John Njue of Kenya have said they won’t attend for health reasons.
That leaves 133 voters, and a record 108 of them were appointed by Francis, more than 80%. That doesn’t mean a progressive that follows in his footsteps will get the nod − many of the new cardinals hardly know each other and may not share his views − but it likely eliminates a hardcore conservative. A two-thirds majority is required.
The most diverse conclave
For the first time in memory, Europeans make up less than 50% of the voting cardinals, coming in at 47%. The trend in that direction was set in motion decades ago, but the advances of other regions stand out more than ever.
In an unprecedented distribution, representatives from Latin America (18%), Asia and the Pacific (16%) and Africa and the Middle East (14%) all make up at least 14% of the voting cardinals at the conclave. That’s the same percentage of those from Italy, the formerly dominant presence at these events.
The Asian and African contingents made the biggest leaps since the 2013 conclave that elected Francis, no coincidence considering his outreach to those continents.
The first Asian or African pope in modern times?
There has never been a pope from what’s now known as Asia, nor an African pope since the end of the fifth century. The three African popes before that – Victor I, Miltiades and Gelasius I – were believed to be Black and born during the Roman Empire. All three became saints.
Now one of the seemingly top candidates for the papacy is Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, an ally of Francis and a native of the Philippines, home to the largest Catholic population in Asia (about 85 million) and third biggest in the world. Hardly a list of contenders is published without including Tagle’s name.
Likewise, two African cardinals – Peter Turkson of Ghana and Fridolin Ambongo of the Democratic Republic of Congo, both advocates for social justice – are often mentioned as papabili, or potential candidates.
They hail from fertile ground for the church, which saw an increase of more than 3% in African Catholics from 2022 to 2023, totaling more than 280 million. That’s 20% of the estimated 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide.
The fewest Italian cardinals
There was a time – 455 consecutive years, to be exact – when betting the new pope would hail from Italy made for easy money. Now it’s a much iffier proposition.
The centuries-old tradition of Italian pontiffs ended when John Paul I unexpectedly died in 1978 and was succeeded by the Polish-born John Paul II. The next two popes, Benedict XVI and Francis, were from Germany and Argentina, respectively, and suddenly Italy was on an extended losing streak.
There are strong Italian contenders among the current cardinals, including Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin and Bologna Archbishop Matteo Zuppi, but with Italian voting representation down to 14%, odds of the next pope coming from the Bel Paese have diminished.
Still, it will be a while until any other nation catches up. Italy’s 216 popes are 200 more than the next country on the list, France.
Several newcomers to the voting process
Francis would be proud that the electors at this conclave hail from 71 countries, in keeping with his desire for the church to become more inclusive.
Italy still leads with 17, followed by the United States with 10 and Brazil with seven. Perhaps more notable is the presence of more than two dozen cardinal electors from countries that have never voted for a pope, among them Rwanda, Myanmar and South Sudan, according to the Washington Post.
“It has become more exotic,” said Massimo Faggioli, a professor of theology and religious studies at Villanova University. “There are now many cardinals from Asia and North Africa who are potential popes. That makes it different than it has been for many centuries.”